China Addresses Legal Problems and Goes on Holiday

BEIJING --- New CMM subscribers glancing through our headlines this month may be forgiven for thinking that media and entertainment in China has more to do with regulation than content. In fact, the recent rash of policy announcements may be little more than posturing by various organizations before the major Chinese New Year break and should be taken with more than a pinch of salt.

What is worrying is that when they all come back for the year of the Dragon, all the problems, contradictions and over-lapping quasi-legislation will still be there. Indeed, the various interested parties will merely have had time to consider their next moves before charging back in for the next round of regulatory fencing.

What all this means for major international companies is that "short termism" and consolidation will remain the order of the day. Even the best laid long term plans will have to be continually re-worked as the playing field changes. Indeed, there are few analysts who would predict which of the organs currently jostling for position will even exist this time next year.

For that reason, the revolutionary administrative changes announced in Shanghai this month may actually provide a better indication of the future structure of the cultural market in China than any recent pronouncements at the national level.

As CMM-I also prepares for the Spring Festival break, we can at least say with some confidence that China is finally waking up to its legal problems and that the Year 2000 will see the central government tackle some of the fundamental issues facing these crucial sectors of the economy.

The process will not be pretty and CMM-I will certainly be tracking sideways and backwards moves in the coming months. Neither will this process lead to an improvement in trading conditions for most international businesses in the short term. It does, however, need to be done and sooner is always better than never.

Happy New Year!